Sunday, 1 July 2012

July 2, 2012


Musalman Museebat main ghabraya naheen karta !!!!!


In these times of great crisis, sacrifice, threat and war, the brave sons of the millat are holding their ground, keeping the Sabz Hilali parcham high! Our sons in the army and within the nation who are fighting on all axis to defend this Pak Sarzameen, this message of love from Baba Quaid is truly directed to you! By Allah, we will not let the snakes, vultures and swines harm our beloved Medina e Sani!

Pak Sarzameen Shaad Baad. Kishwar e Haseen Shaad Baad!



BrassTacks Threat Analysis and Security Report

 for this week:




India is now fully on the aggressive against Pakistan in diplomatic, political and media and military spheres. The gloves are off, daggers are out! The façade of peace process has now been torn to shreds. The military and perception management preparations for the upcoming conflict and the present 4th generation war against Pakistan are now in full swing. India has once again blamed Pakistan for the Mumbai attacks creating serious frictions between the two countries. India postponed the talks also and launched a full broadside against Pakistan for involvement in “terrorism”.

India is wrongly sensing a collision between Pakistan and US and hence is trying to ride the wave. What it does not realize that US’s back is already broken and there is no way US can threaten Pakistan militarily when NATO’s lifeline remains in Pakistan’s hand.

Pakistan continues to block NATO supplies creating a game changing scenario in which certain defeat stares the western military alliance in the face in Afghanistan. US is in a desperate situation, not willing nor capable to exert any more pressure on Pakistan lest Pakistan’s anger turn to rage. US teams are arriving in droves and going back empty handed. The task for the US became even more difficult when a cross border raid by TTP killed dozen or more Pakistan soldiers sending a wave of anger within the Pak army and the nation. It is almost impossible for the senior leadership now to appear to be soft or compromising towards the US.

The rage and anger against US in the ranks and officers of Pak army is now red hot levels and may turn to disobedience or even a mutiny if the top commanders are seen to be giving concessions to the US/NATO. The COAS of Pakistan army is aware of the serious consequences and the prevailing mood in the army under his command. Pakistan army responded firmly to the attack, attacking the TTP bases inside Afghanistan and holding the US and Afghan regime responsible for the deaths of Pakistani troops.

Pakistan has got irrefutable proof that CIA and US marines are guiding and controlling the terrorist TTP to wage their proxy war against Pakistan.

The attack by the TTP terrorists from Afghanistan has clearly created another crisis for the US now and it has indeed affected the negotiations for re-opening of the NATO supplies. US is pushing Pakistan but is also cautious not to isolate or antagonize the powerful Pak army. The worst nightmare for the US is to make Pakistan hostile.

In the immediate short term, US has following demands and none are being met by a defiant Pakistan army:

1. US want release of NATO supplies.

2. US want Pakistan to wage a war against Afghan resistance. Pakistan will never do that. While US talks to Afghan Taliban for a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan, it wants Pakistan to wage a war against them. A farcical and nonsensical demand to make from Pakistan.

3. US want the release of Dr. Shakeel Afridi, the collaborator whom Pakistan sees as traitor. Releasing Dr. Shakeel afridi would send the wrong signals in the country that it is OK to work as agents of foreign secret services and the reward can be very lucrative one way ticket to the promised lands. Pakistan has no plan to release Shakeel Afridi and the US is again frustrated and furious.

Let alone releasing the stuck up NATO supplies, there are demands in Pakistan to even block the air bridge which is still carrying the weapons into Afghanistan. There is a fierce debate going on within the government ministries over the legality of the operations as the national parliament has categorically refused to let any weapons pass through the Pakistani soil or air space. This new campaign in media and in the debate in the government is another nightmare for the US and NATO.

US army in Afghanistan is now badly stuck and cannot sustain this blockade for long nor do they have the military muscle to force their way in or out of Afghanistan through Pakistan. The crisis is not just to take the supplies in but also how to take them out of the country. Pakistan is the lifeline for the US forces in Afghanistan and there is no way an alternate supply or exit route can be found. Already, the blockade is costing them billions of dollars extra in transportation charges and air freight. Now if the air bridge is also closed, that would be the end of the Afghan adventure for US and NATO.

For the last 12 years, US has been abusing, humiliating, violating and attacking Pakistan’s sovereignty, security, dignity and freedom. Now it is the payback time for Pakistan. US can only gasp helplessly. Meanwhile within Pakistan, the chaos in politics and governance continues.

PPP has appointed a new Prime Minister but his fate seems no different from his predecessor. Both the Army and the Supreme Court are now bent for the kill and are pushing the cases against the regime and its stalwarts aggressively. The regime is a pain for the country and at war with the army and the judiciary and now it seems that both army and SC have reached an tacit understanding to deliver the coup de grace. In any case, this regime is hell bent upon committing suicide and does not need any external enemies to terminate them.

PPP and Zardari know that very tough times are ahead which may even impeach the entire government as well as the parliament as the clash between the institutions threaten to implode the state from within. Frantically, Zardari is mustering his allies and taking all legal and illegal precautions to prevent a judicial coup against the regime. But it is too late now. The beginning of the end has been triggered.

The country is in a state of meltdown, facing existential threats on all axis while the regime remains bury in robbing, looting and plundering the national wealth at the staggering rate of almost Rupees 6 to 8 billion per day according to the National accountability bureau. That makes the mind boggling figure of almost the entire national budget!!!

This is where the Pakistan army and the SC will have to make their call. It is already too late and a dangerous collapse has already taken place. The country is on the verge of total Somalia styled anarchy but the SC and the army still remain indecisive about the future course. But as we see it, the scenario has become unsustainable and army will be dragged into over throwing this regime and bringing in a caretaker government.

According to the law, the President is supposed to bring the caretaker government but under the circumstances, that would be a national suicide. The signs are that by next month, this regime may be sent packing for good and a new caretaker government be brought in place by the army and the SC. That is the only option left now to attempt a salvage operation of the sinking ship.

If the army and the SC still do not bring about a regime change, the consequence of the alternate would be too dreadful to comprehend. Drones, TTP, BLA and sectarian terrorists all had their field days of killings with impunity this week also. There is literally no government in Pakistan today and the army is desperately over stretched fighting a war which is not just ruthless but outright dirty as well against enemies who are sinister, stealth and protected by the CIA and RAW in the safe havens of Afghanistan.

The last rites of this Zardari regime need to be delivered now else the cost of collective punishment to this nation would be too staggering to comprehend. Pakistan is well and truly surrounded and rapidly collapsing under the most vicious axis of multiple wars on military, economic and media. The regime remains deliberate collaborators to bring about a systematic controlled demolition of the state and the society and can be best explained by the 6th US President, though he said about the US Congress but equally true to the Zardari regime as well.

"All the public business in Congress now connects itself with intrigues, and there is great danger that the whole government will degenerate into a struggle of cabals." -
John Quincy Adams- (1767-1848) 6th US President

Army should realize that they are giving dozens of casualties every week at this stage. In not so near future, the cost would run into hundreds of dead per week, perhaps even higher as the collapse of the state and the economy invites the entire axis of most violent non-state and state actors pouncing upon Pakistan from Khyber to Karachi, over stretching the army into a bloody reactive high intensity urban war. Unless the army removes this regime and bring about patriotic caretakers today, the country and the army would go down together. It has reached to this point now. No second option, no further time to ponder. The fuse is already lit.

Khair inshAllah.

Zaid Hamid

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