Sunday, 29 July 2012

July 30, 2012



 In these dark times, a message of hope and strength!


In these times of great despair, a most amazing destiny awaits Pakistan. These tests are to separate Momineen from the Munafiqeen. The wars will come, enemies will attack, traitors will betray but have faith that Allah (swt) have NOT abandoned this millat. The written destiny has to unfold. We can alter the price to pay for it but the destiny is defined and it is amazingly glorious, MashAllah! So while you see the anarchy and chaos around us, also ignite yourself with the passion, misison and the duty which is defined for you. Now there will be no neutrals. be part of it or you will be counted against it! Spread this hope and do your duty!

Exclusive BrassTacks Threat Analysis and Pakistan's 

Security review for the week:

Exclusive BrassTacks Threat Analysis and Pakistan's Security review for the week:

The entire Indian strategy against Pakistan hinges on using the American pressure to bully Pakistan. The presence of Zardari regime in Islamabad has made it even easier for the Indians to achieve their grand strategic objectives against Pakistan. The facade is peace; the reality is a world war.

India is openly in a state of war against Pakistan, under the facade of war on terror, riding the western strategy in Afghanistan and against Pakistan. These are most delicate times for Pakistan’s national security when Pakistan is effectively surrounded, being demolished bit by bit through the deployed 4GW which is now advancing to the last stages of inviting an invasion from the East and West. India now has no shame in acknowledging the fact that its war against “terror” (read Pakistan) is a global world war, in alliance with the western powers.

Anti-terror fight is 4th world war, says Mukherjee
NEW DELHI, July 25: Fight against terrorism is the fourth world war and India has been on the frontlines of the conflict, Indian President Pranab Mukherjee said on Wednesday. Taking oath as the president, he said a few minutes of peace would achieve far more than many years of war...

This year, India has produced a policy document explaining its goals and visions for the 21st century. The document makes a stunning read and is a classic piece of sinister Machiavellian diplomacy and betrayal. It would be interesting to read how India perceives Pakistan at the moment and waits to exploit the present chaos, anarchy and subversion in the country under the deployed 4GW. Here we have only taken a brief extract from the paper. The document clearly indicates that India intends to be aggressive against Pakistan even more in areas of vulnerability and crisis, even getting involved to precipitate the crisis to create chaos in Pakistan, even having the audacity to plan for "refugees" from Pakistan. This is classic application of 4thGW involving insurgencies, chaos, media war and diplomacy to defeat and destroy Pakistan under the facade of peace talks. This is indeed an eye opening document explaining the Indian strategy for the 21st century. Sinister to the core.

The extract of the Indian Policy document reads:

“The internal stability of Pakistan—whether it continues in the current unstable equilibrium, moves towards greater stability or instability—will be primarily determined by forces at work within Pakistan itself. There is little that India can do either to accelerate or impede a potential implosion of Pakistan. Concerns on this account must not inhibit our strategy towards Pakistan.

We should also be prepared—in the event of a major terrorist attack—to send a political signal to the Pakistan Army. The idea would be to instil a measure of caution and make them think hard before allowing another attack in the future. We have, in the past, resorted to controlled application of force across the Line of Control. Going forward, we need to move away from the notion of capturing and holding territory (however limited)
to conducting effective stand-off punitive operations. (This is discussed further in Chapter Three.) Given that concerns about escalation cannot be wished away, we also need to
develop other capabilities to impose costs on Pakistan.

65. On the political front, too, we need to develop the ability to put Pakistan diplomatically on the back-foot. We should not hesitate to point out Pakistan’s internal vulnerabilities. To begin with, we could express public concern over the situation in places like Balochistan and condemn human rights violations there. The level of our response could be gradually and progressively elevated. Our stance will fall well short of action on the ground, but it will gradually provide an effective tool to counter Pakistan’s public posturing on Jammu & Kashmir.

66. Similarly, we need to gradually turn the spotlight on Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir, Gilgit and Baltistan. Our quest for a Line of Control (LoC) based solution for J&K has led to the progressive neglect of our claims on these areas. This now works to our disadvantage because the LoC is seen as the starting point and an eventual compromise is envisioned in terms of an LoC plus solution. Reasserting our claims and concerns will not only be a
sensible declaratory posture. It will also help counter Pakistan’s claims about J&K being the ‘core concern’. We should formulate and execute a media plan which puts the problems in these areas continuously in the focus, and place the issue on the agenda of
India-Pakistan talks.

67. Our presence in Afghanistan is perceived in a negative light by Pakistan. In fact, we could build on this perception. While expressing our willingness to work with Pakistan in the stability and reconstruction of Afghanistan, we should consistently reject any special role for Pakistan in Afghanistan and make it clear that India will work with other partners to prevent the subversion of the government of Afghanistan by Pakistan or its proxies. The evolving situation in Afghanistan will pose certain kinds of challenges for the Pakistan Army. In the short run, they may be in a stronger position because of their ability to facilitate talks with some insurgent groups. But in the long run, a diminished American presence and interest in Afghanistan will make it difficult for the Pakistan Army to extract rents from the U.S. In such a situation, its interest in preserving its position and resources is likely to increase. This, in turn, may provide us with additional levers to influence its behaviour.


76. The current situation in Pakistan underlines the importance of preparing ourselves for certain contingencies. While a number of these could be envisioned, two situations need close attention. The first pertains to the possibility of nuclear terrorism emanating from Pakistan. It is discussed in the section on nuclear security in Chapter Five.

77. The second contingency that we need to prepare for is the possibility of spiralling instability in Pakistan (or even a major environmental disaster) leading to a humanitarian crisis at our doorstep. Is it possible for us to seal our borders? If not, how do we expect to cope with a potentially large influx of Pakistanis? What lines of communication do we need to have in place to be able to work with those in Pakistan who might attempt to control this situation? These questions and more will need to be thought through well in advance. The current unstable equilibrium in Pakistan will need to be watched closely. We should not assume that all forms of instability are bad from our perspective. The challenge for our strategy is to cope with the consequences of its tipping over into outright instability”

BrassTacks comments:

It is clear from the above document that Indians are now waiting for and even assisting in the demolition of Pakistani state and are building contingencies to deal with the aftermath of a failed state which is also invaded under the Af-pak and Cold start doctrines.

The Syrian example is most close to what the Indian and Americans plan for Pakistan today where an urban high intensity war is demolition the last remains of the state and the regional countries are waiting to pounce in for the spoils of war while the Syrians flee their land or die in great numbers.

There is absolutely no doubt in our mind that once the US and NATO are free from the Syrian campaign, they will turn their attention wards Pakistan, the last frontier to be captured to “secure” the greater Middle East. The media Psy-ops and information war has already begun for the “next” campaign. From terror threats from Pakistan to London Olympics to Hollywood movies depicting attack on Pakistan – presenting Pakistan as the new bad guys are the hottest psy-ops hitting the global media, preparing the minds and perceptions of the world against Pakistan. The PPP regime is fully involved in creating the perceptions that Pakistanis are involved in sending terror suspects to London for acts of terror in the London Olympics. The PPP regime is actively collaborating with the CIA and MI6 to nail Pakistan in the coming days. The stage is all set, the players well rehearsed and target is Pakistan.

While Pakistan is being softened for Syria solution rapidly and the media psy-ops have already begun, Pakistan’s relations with US remains uncertain, even hostile over Afghanistan. Incredibly, the Pakistan government remains active collaborators of the US in orchestrating the controlled demolition of the state while the Pakistan army and the ISI desperately try to salvage the remains of the state and their lawful authority.

For the last many years, since this “democracy” was imposed, the army has been walking the tight rope of trying to balance the national security with the requirements of the democracy and constitution. But now it has become impossible to balance the pulls of the two opposing extremes. Army still has the means to pull the country back from the abyss but incredibly remains indecisive despite fully knowing the disastrous, in fact, suicidal consequences of letting this democracy continue. For now, under the democracy, the best army can do is to try to minimize the damage to the state and try to protect Pakistan’s geographic and regional interests under a massive encirclement of the state and the armed forces.

Relations are rapidly deteriorating between Pakistan and US despite the release of the NATO supplies. Indians are fully exploiting these moments of anarchy through Afghanistan, supporting and supplying the insurgencies from Afghanistan which neither the NATO nor the US is willing to stop.

Pakistan is visibly frustrated and both ISI and CIA are directly engaging to break the deadlock but on ground clashes between Pakistani forces and an array of enemies from insurgents to Afghan army to attacks by drones continue creating a genuine crisis for Pak army.

NATO supplies are the most serious and contentious issue for both Pakistan’s national security and US’s strategy and survival in Afghanistan. The geography of Pakistan is its greatest asset but it is not being deployed to protect Pakistan’s interests. The regime is in a hurry to sign a “suicide note” under which the NATO would get unfettered free access through Pakistan to take in and bring back all military hardware for the war in Afghanistan and for future invasion of Pakistan under Af-Pak. There is extreme reaction in the country over the NATO supply agreement but the regime is interested in the money, hence in a hurry to push the document through without even debating it in parliament or in public.

These are the final defining moments in Pakistan’s history. The Syrian fate is staring Pakistan in the eyes. In Islamabad, a corrupt and treacherous regime remains at war with the state and its organs with shameless audacity while the political parties, oblivious to the threats, are insisting either for an extension of the parliament or an early elections. The opposition parties want elections, the ruling ones want to extend the election dates under the pretext of security issues. The Supreme Court remains central in the whole chaotic game, acting as spoilers for the government, army and the opposition.

It is a classic, chaotic, anarchic meltdown of state which has pushed the nation and the country into the abyss of total and complete annihilation like Iraq, Libya and now Syria. It would be impossible for the army to hold back any further.

The three top government parties – MQM, ANP and JUI – are Indian assets and do not recognize the state and the ideology of Pakistan and have always remained loyal to Indian interests, waging an urban war in Karachi against each other to bring about a meltdown in the city. Here, on the directives of their handlers, these parties incredibly join hands together apparently very concerned over the “threats” to the country and demanding a roundtable conference which would demand delaying of the elections for one more year to allow the regime to complete its agenda of demolition of the state.

With state organs at war with each other, the criminals, terrorists, insurgents, street gangs and mafia run the country. Army is surrounded, over stretched, exhausted and fighting a desperate battle against non-state violent actors who are waging an urban asymmetric war within the mainland. The advantage of surprise always remains with the insurgents and the forces and the citizens are taking heavy casualties.

Khair inshAllah.

Zaid Hamid

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