April 2nd, 2022

This is the corrupt democratic political & judicial system of Pakistan which always remains on a self destruct fuse. Pak army has always been the rescuer of the last resort once the political system begins to collapse the State onto itself.
For now, Army has no choice!!

https://twitter.com/ZaidZamanHamid/status/1509961488735342599?t=ydsuGl7H-rD64mroS8pRvg&s=19

 

1.
We are going to do an important thread on political turmoil in Pakistan. In the next 48 hours, as things appear, Imran Khan may not remain the PM & could be removed under a no confidence motion in parliament.

What went wrong for Imran Khan? Who is responsible for this mess?


2.
In the extremally charged political environment in the country, the voice of reason, facts & logic has been drowned long time ago. The political discourse has descended into verbal abuses, power shows, allegations, counter allegations & outright polarized hostility.

3.
Understandably, the young, emotional & often delusional followers of Imran Khan are furious & are looking for fall guys to nail the blame on....
Its almost impossible to reason with them.

Despite this, I will try to be as factual, candid & blunt as I can be to explain this.

4.
On the other hand, what I am going to write is also going to be unpleasant for GHQ & military brass. But this is not a colonial army & all of them come from our homes, neighborhoods and towns & must hear the pulse & sentiments of the nation, for everyone share the stakes here

5.

The story starts in 2008 when President Musharraf was removed by a CIA orchestrated "Lawyers movement" where all political parties, ironically even PTI, took to the streets to remove the General & subsequently, PPP/Zardari was brought into power in a "democracy".

6.
So begins the era of plunder, corruption, treason & total surrender of national sovereignty, dignity & security.
Pak state began to collapse rapidly as large regions were overrun by CIA/RAW backed terrorists & Pak army was fighting high intensity wars within its borders.

7.
After the 10 years rule of President Musharraf, Army was obviously reluctant to get involved into micromanagement of the political Govt. Zardari & PPP had a free run to loot & destroy the state of Pakistan.
Those were the darkest times for Pakistani state & nation.

8.

General Kiyani was the COAS & Iftikhar Chaudrey was the Chief justice in this era. Both with highly dubious credentials.
It was during this time that Abbottabad operation was launched by CIA & Salala incident took place where US killed 27 Pak army officers & men on border.

9.
Finally Gen. Kiyani retired during the era of Nawaz Shareef who took power after 2013 elections, removing the Zardari cult. General Raheel, a highly respected & patriotic officer became the new army chief.
Corruption & treason by Nawaz Govt continued unabated here as well..

10.
During the era of General Raheel, Pakistan started to stabilize the imposed wars & the law & order situation improved considerably, even though the political govt of Nawaz Shareef continued its course of collision with the armed forces & remained most corrupt regime ever.

11.
By 2018 elections, both large political parties, PPP & PMLN, were tried, tested & found to be treacherous to the state.
New elections were coming & a 3rd political force was on the rise...Imran Khan.

The state of Pakistan was sinking under democracy but Army had no choice

12.
There were only 3 options for the army back then...
a. Take the matters into its own hands & impose martial law.
b. Create a caretaker civilian Govt & pause the system for 3 years to reform the decadent system.
c. Support Imran Khan as an alternate to 2 corrupt parties.

13.
By 2018, under democracy, the state of Pakistan was sinking & now army had to make some very extra ordinary & difficult decisions.
IK was popular but he was politically naïve, arrogant, impulsive & inflammable, more of a celebrity only.
& He had NO team to run country

14.
Army knew that if they do not want to take over the country directly, they will have to offer more than the covert support to the IK Govt.
His own political team consisted of playboys, ruffians, opportunists & outright traitors imported from UK or US working for CIA/MI6.

15.
This was a new experiment for GHQ also. They had either taken over the Govt & imposed martial Law in the past or allowed the political Govts to function independently.
This time, they had to come out in the open to create a "hybrid regime" where they taught the PTI to walk

16.
I was talking to a senior ISI officer back in 2018 when PTI came into power on this hybrid model. I had strong reservations on this hybrid arrangements & wanted a technocratic caretaker Govt instead of professionals to cleanse the system first & create a new political model

17.

He told me that Army & ISI only want to stabilize the PTI Govt enough that the political govt is able to stand on their own feet in two years & then ISI/Army can withdraw their overt support & go back to their "barracks" proverbially, only managing on need basis covertly.

18.

I was resisting the idea of this hybrid democracy, knowing fully well that this system will only sink not just the country but also destroy the image, respect & credibility of the institution of army & its leadership.
Army will not be able to withdraw once sucked in.

19.
As expected, this is exactly what happened.

PTI Govt could not deliver. There were massive foreign policy challenges that came. India annexed Kashmir, US was leaving Afghanistan, Covid came & economy was locked down, supply chain disrupted...
insurgencies came back...

20.
In the early stage of his Govt, PM IK took a strategic decision which had far reaching & damaging influence on the country, Army & his own Govt. He gave an extension to the present Army Chief General Bajwa.
The decision was unpopular not just in the army but in nation too.

21.

As failures began to haunt the IK govt & the noise & combined opposition began to haunt, frictions rose between the Political Govt & the GHQ.
Imran wanted to keep the DG ISI till the retirement of present COAS & then elevate him to the next Chief.
This caused frictions.

22.
A General officer cannot be made Army Chief unless he has commanded a fighting Corp for at least a year.
DG ISI did not fill this criteria if he stayed in ISI till November. His elevation to COAS would have destroyed
Army's structure & discipline. He was sent to Peshawar.

23.

But problems between IK & GQB did not end here.
General Faiz had become highly controversial during his tenure as DG ISI & his elevation as Army Chief would create serious problems for the institution of COAS & its role in the country as the arbitrator of the last resort.

24.

IK should have taken a middle path here instead of sticking to guns of appointing Gen Faiz as the next COAS. He could have easily avoided all confrontations by naming a neutral non political Lt General from the Corp Commanders to settle the issue for all times. He did not.

25.

"The army & the Govt is on the same page" was the national anthem during this "hybrid" experiment. But it was the army that took the fall hardest for the blunders of the naïve & often corrupt IK govt.

All the goodwill built during Gen Raheel era was lost...

26.

There are dozens of issues where frictions rose between IK & Army.
Diplomatic blunders with Turkey, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia caused great embarrassment.
Blame for a defeated response to Indian annexation of Kashmir..
Balancing between East & West had no coordinated policy.

27.

While there is no doubt that General Bajwa had a great influence in defining the foreign policy, there is also no doubt that IK govt had NO capacity or vision to even formulate any long term strategic plans. In fact, it had dubious shady NSA like Moeed Yusuf.

28.

So, finally after 3 years, this hybrid marriage fell apart. The blame is shared by both IK & GQB.
This was a relationship which was bound to collapse sooner than later. Political Govt had NO capacity to become independent & Army was getting filthy in getting dragged along.

29.

Now the country & the institutions' have reached a deadlock. IK & his party are furious at the Army for being "neutral" at a time when a "regime change" plan is in motion. Their anger is palpable & pointed.

Army is stuck in the madhouse. Their hybrid experiment failed.

30.

It will be great embarrassment for the GHQ also if the known corrupt & treacherous convicts are allowed to come back to power through an externally supported political coup. Trying to stop this by force would mean a military takeover. There is NO other way to stop this.

31.

So, for now, it seems that GHQ will let the political process takes its course. It was the job of the Election Commission & the Supreme Court to take cognizance of the intrusion in the political process but they have decided to remain "neutral".
Army cannot send in troops

32.

What happens after Sunday is wide open...all wild cards are at play. On the face of it, IK will lose his office. His party will vent their anger on the army for "ditching" them at this moment, without realizing that Army cannot take over the job of Supreme Court or EC.

33.

If the opposition parties are able to remove IK, then the next phase of political chaos will begin.
They will not be able to form any stable govt either & the system will begin to collapse on itself.

This is where Army will once again be dragged in to stabilize the chaos

34.

This is the corrupt democratic political & judicial system of Pakistan which always remains on a self destruct fuse. Pak army has always been the rescuer of the last resort once the political system begins to collapse the State onto itself.
For now, Army has no choice!!

35.

This Pakistan is here to stay. There is NO power on earth that can undone it, are the prophetic words of the founder Quaid e Azam. We have passed through much more difficult times & come out stronger.

I see NO reason to panic or abandon the ship. These times will pass too 

https://www.facebook.com/syedzaidzamanhamid/posts/pfbid0srgocRD2kQpayJCKApeTfkCwsaaJ92682XD6yu6qVfyxbx1aKWUbdQzkbs5oPovCl?__cft__[0]=AZUnygrU2E_1_KGxXMg8Vc8qGItFKEApVMTCwZzBpvA8R1RxuDLpqQC-_AuQ3YfmWwCGq4NKp51_ZYzy-S2Xefz4QdpwIhq9wesc93d-1WefCDtCQGUB41B6Vu-FdYfHVqaamat3Kgw3en3Cn--0ygeUc0fUqi1kXg9vhpHsmtFIdw&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R