Sooner or later, Army will be sucked in once the social chaos & political anarchy becomes unbearable & begins to sink the state. The fuse has been lit & despite the desire to remain "neutral", the social environment & public pressure will draw them out. So, we wait!
https://twitter.com/ZaidZamanHamid/status/1511766837259816966?t=lX0Ip2jHpDHIAueg-l8oDA&s=19
1.
Supreme Court is going to decide on the fate of Pakistani politics on Thursday, as it seem now.
I am going to do a thread on the various possibilities & their outcomes for those whose heads are spinning at the chaotic madhouse circus being orchestrated in Islamabad today.
2.
I will cut the political & legal BS & make it simple.
Option 1. Supreme Court can decide in Imran's favor. Which means assemblies stand dissolved, a caretaker Govt will be formed & country will go into next elections in due time. Opposition will have to accept the verdict.
3.
Option 2.
SC can reject the actions of PTI in parliament & restore the PTI govt & order a no confidence vote against Imran, which he is going to lose on numbers & then cease to remain the PM. But the assemblies would remain intact & Shehbaz Shareef can become the next PM.
4.
If the SC goes for option 2 & Shehbaz Shareef becomes the PM, then that would be a major coup against PTI & IK. The regime change plan would be complete with opposition elements coming into power through the system. Already his son Hamza is claiming to be CM Punjab.
5.
If the opposition takes power in the country, it will result in few of the following.
PTI will go into protest & agitation mode, refusing to accept the verdict & the opposition govt. Result = more anarchy.
The opposition Govt will use all its powers to nail & punish PTI.
6.
Opposition parties want to rule for the remaining tenure of the parliament, which is about more than a year. Enough time to change all elections laws brought about by PTI govt. Also they will focus on destroying all accountability cases against them & will target NAB heavily.
7.
In this scenario, opposition led by PMLN will start fierce revenge taking against Imran Khan & his PTI members.
This time, they will all face court cases & even jail terms.
In Pakistan, judiciary generally favors PMLN, so, we can expect very hard times for PTI now.
8.
This would be a free for all season for corruption in Pakistan. The opposition in Govt would be savage to make maximum windfall profits in the limited times they have to rule.
Governance & inflation would not be their priority. They are equally corrupt & incompetent.
9.
Political chaos & social fragmentation would increase in either case -- Imran wins or loses in SC.
Economic chaos would increase.
With weak corrupt govt in place, terrorism & security would become major challenges.
Pakistan's relations with China, Russia would take hit.
10.
At this stage, Pakistan has entered a political dead end. All major parties have been tested, tried & found to be outright stupid & corrupt. More elections will not solve anything.
With global political, military & economic chaos, Pakistan will be more vulnerable.
11.
For now, the arbitrators of the last resort, Pakistan army is keeping their distance from the political & judicial chaos. They have been burnt very badly lately & are reluctant to "manage" the politics, overtly or covertly.
This will accelerate the social & political chaos
12.
There is NO doubt that external forces & local collaborators have played their role in destabilizing the country.
They have successfully tarnished the image of the army & have managed to push it back, giving space to the most compromised political elements to rampage..
13.
Indians & Americans will not sit back with opposition in power & Army put on the defensive politically.
Expect massive interference & involvement through political & media engineering & support to insurgent elements.
Indian army will wait for the right time to move in!!
14.
Whatever be the decision of the SC, it will create utter chaos in the country.
The politics of Imran Khan seems to have come to an end. His own follies & betrayals within his ranks have brought him down.
Parliamentary democracy has crashed in Pak. Its chaos from here on...
15.
Sooner or later, Army will be sucked in once the social chaos & political anarchy becomes unbearable & begins to sink the state. The fuse has been lit & despite the desire to remain "neutral", the social environment & public pressure will draw them out.
So, we wait!
One more point.
I personally feel that SC is going to decide against IK.
He went into this battle also unprepared & have not been able to decisively prove foreign "conspiracy".
PTI still have the option of resigning from the assemblies which will create crisis for opposition.
No comments:
Post a Comment