Trump has been pushed by Israel into a grave provocation & now
Pentagon & White House are clueless on what to do next...
Let me do a series of tweets on factual positions of various countries & their strategies & the possible "war" scenarios.
Its a very complex situation where Trump has been pushed by Israel into a grave provocation & now Pentagon & White House are clueless on what to do next...
https://twitter.com/ZaidZamanHamid/status/1214248407637938177?s=19&fbclid=IwAR24xVDOMYxlfqrZSbj0ruJ_dfzO2WoOubYIoadKraZ0piYMOw5KmpzoAOkWho instigated this provocation? It was Israel.
In this entire scenario, Israel is in the most comfortable position. Its borders are secure, its energy is not dependent upon Gulf & it can use US army to destroy its enemies without getting any Israeli killed.
Makes sense.
Trump committed himself but now finds himself in a hole. There was NO plan B on how to respond if Iran retaliates. So, first reaction is to gain time to prepare the Plan B.
That is why Trump has asked dozens of countries to force Iran not to retaliate, while bluffing himself too
Saudis & UAE are in panic mode too. Trump did NOT consult them before the strike & now everyone in Riyadh & UAE are fearing an Iranian retaliation.
They wanted a proper US attack on Iran to totally degrade Tehran's capacity to retaliate but killing Sulaimani has not done that..
Basic rule of warfare is that you never kick a sleeping tiger unless you want to finish what you have started or have a backup plan ready. Clearly, in this scenario, US had neither.
No decisive war campaign nor a backup plan to protect its interests from an Iranian retaliation.
What does Iranian history tell us ??
One, they are very calculative in their response despite the apparent bravado & threats of insane suicide missions.
When US had shot down the Iranian airliner killing hundreds, Iran did not respond openly or immediately, despite the promises
What is Iran's strategy ?
It is to keep the war outside its borders & avoid a conventional high intensity war with US.
Iran knows that it cannot fight a conventional war with US within its own borders....& its strength is the Militias which are spread all over the Middle East.
Remember Beirut? When Hizbullah rammed an explosive laden truck into US Marines complex killing hundreds...forcing the US to leave Lebanon immediately...
This is the blue print for Iran's retaliation. Now they have Militias in entire region..Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Afg....
But this time for the Iranis, the enemy is not just the Americans. There are Saudis too & Emiratis.
If Irani backed militias attacks a US base, that can draw more American attacks. But if Iran retaliates against Saudis or UAE, even Trump would consider it a blessing..
But remember that Israel instigated this attack for a purpose. It wants US to finish off its enemies in the Middle East. So, expect more pressure on Trump to expand the military campaign against Iran....ideally for Israel to a regime change in Tehran & not just limited to drones.
And this is what Iranians are also calculating now.
How much Trump would retaliate if Iran retaliates...?
If they remain limited to attacking each other's bases & killing Generals, then its fine for Tehran. But an all out air campaign on Iran could cause serious crisis in Tehran.
Trump's crisis is that he cannot commit ground troops against Iran right now. They had NO war plans ready, no troops available & he does not have the stomach for a new war against a fanatical enemy just before the elections this year. So, he wants a way out too.
So, both Iranians and Trump want to avoid an open war....but both have a face to save too...both cannot afford to appear to be weak now when emotions are so red hot & boiling over....There is extreme pressure on Tehran to show something substantial which could count as revenge.
For Israel, this is the ideal moment it has been preparing for years & they just cannot let it pass without seriously igniting a major war in Gulf & without degrading Iran comprehensibly. So, they are pushing for an all out Air War against Iran which will destroy its war capacity
While Iran is strong in unconventional warfare, it has major weaknesses in a regular conventional war against US. A sustained air war can seriously degrade Iran's critical infrastructure. Refugee crisis may be created.
Even if Iran hurts KSA & UAE, it will be wounded itself.
Major nations take their oil & gas from Gulf. So, the possibility of a war & blockade is creating panic globally & many countries are now asking Iran to hold its horses.
Iran itself would be hurt if oil exports are blocked or war reaches mainland.
Trump is counting on this...
There is not much Pakistan can do in this scenario. Iran will not listen to us & US has no need for our advice. Pakistan has announced to stay neutral but this war, if it breaks out, will affect every country which takes its energy from Gulf including Pak, India & China.
Pakistan should try to brace for impact. Increase fuel storage, initiate fuel rationing, prepare for accepting refugees from Iran, stock pile food supplies & then sit tight to expect an attack from India...which is already hot to move in anytime now.
Some mess it is...Yes!!!
https://www.facebook.com/syedzaidzamanhamid/posts/2639020962819365?__tn__=K-R
