https://twitter.com/ZaidZamanHamid/status/1519048070151000066?t=YBDrIXV6qpwQ4qtGFoWg6A&s=19
https://twitter.com/ZaidZamanHamid/status/1517946060349612034?t=1gdtj4WBs8VCeVOmeeNViQ&s=19
1.
I am going to do a brief thread on what's happening on Pakistan's western border with Afghanistan.
Pakistan is taking very heavy casualties under multiple insurgencies of BLA/TTP which are still backed by Indian RAW despite Afghan Taliban (TTA) taking over power in Kabul.
2.
Since 9/11, for the past 20 years, Pakistan suffered its bloodiest campaign of terror originating from Afghanistan occupied by US/NATO. Nearly 100,000 Pakistanis died & country suffered $150 billion in economic losses. CIA/RAW created the deadliest terror gangs of TTP.
3.
It was a joint CIA/RAW/Mossad project to dismantle Pakistan by 2015.
They nearly succeeded.
Pakistan army was retreating from large parts of the country in North West & was under attack in every city of the country. Those were really dark days...
https://intellibriefs.blogspot.com/2005/02/pak-will-be-failed-state-by-2015-cia.html
4.
One of the reason why Pakistan took such heavy casualties was the disastrously failed strategy of defensive defense. Pakistan army never took the war to the enemy in Afghanistan for fear of antagonizing the US/Kabul regime, which were fully sponsoring this savage terror.
5.
Instead of taking the war to the enemy bases in Afghanistan & pushing it away from the borders, Pakistan kept increasing the walls around garrisons & bases, waiting for the next attack to come. Enemy had all the initiative & advantage of surprise. Attacks kept coming.
6.
Even if Pakistan army launched offensive campaigns, they were limited within the national borders, despite the fact that enemy base areas, supply lines, training camps & Command & Control infrastructure was based in Afghanistan, under Indian control.
The tap was never closed
7.
Afghan Taliban, TTA, are a diametrically opposite group to TTP, ideologically & strategically.
The fact that Indians named their proxy terror gang as "Taliban" was a master stroke of psychological warfare & strategic deception, creating the grand confusion between TTA & TTP.
8.
Throughout the 20 years of war against US occupation, Afghan Taliban, TTA, never fired a single shot against Pakistan. Their entire war strategy was focused against the occupation forces. In fact, US still accuse Pakistan of backing the TTA & "betraying" US in the war.
9.
On the other hand, the RAW/CIA proxy TTP, never fired a single shot against Kabul regime or the US/NATO/RAW occupation forces.
Afghan Taliban were too busy fighting the Americans, hence never opened an extra front against TTP.
TTP also avoided any clash with TTA in Afg.
10.
TTA were fighting their own war of survival against US.
Pak army was fighting its own against TTP.
There was NO strategic coordination between Afghan Taliban & Pakistan to destroy the TTP. Both were fighting their own wars on their own turfs.
TTP stayed safe in Afg.
11.
Fast forward to US withdrawal from Afghanistan....
This sudden US departure created a grand strategic opportunity for Pakistan to fill in the power vacuum in Kabul. For the first time in 20 years, a friendly TTA govt had removed all hostile external forces from power.
12.
With NO US/Kabul regime elements to create any problems, Pakistan could have simply taken the war to the TTP deep inside Afghanistan. There was NO one stopping Pakistan from doing that.
Afghan Taliban were totally dependent upon Pakistan's support & would not mind at all.
13.
But the Govt of IK, froze in indecision & the greatest grand strategic opportunity offered to Pakistan in last two decades was lost. Catastrophic failure.
Pakistan refused to recognize IEA Govt.
Pakistan refused to enter into Afghanistan to hit & destroy TTP bases.
14.
Faced with their own internal challenges, Govt formation, fighting the northern alliance, facing the terror from CIA created ISIS & suffering from worst economic collapse & famine, Afghan Taliban had little appetite to fight Pakistan's war against TTP..
Not their priority.
15.
Cashing on the strategic blunders of the Pakistani govt, TTP which was in shock after the fall of Kabul, quickly gathered itself, regrouped & relaunched its campaign of terror with more savagery, this time with much better weapons & NVDs left behind by the Americans.
16.
As a result, Pakistan immediately started to take heavy casualties in a rush of terror attacks across entire border regions from Khyber to Baluchistan.
And this is the state of the battlefield today.
Political blunders leading up to military debacles & humiliations.
17.
Afghan Taliban are very shrewd & wise negotiators. They know their interests & know how to use strategic leverage against their opponents.
They are not opening a war front against TTP & one reason is that they are using them as a strategic bargaining chip against Pakistan.
18.
TTA argument is simple.. why should we fight a war for Pakistan when Pakistan does not even recognize them? fair enough !
TTA have given international pledge that they will never allow any terror group to wage war against any other country. This clause & pledge binds them..
19.
But TTA also have an alibi.
They claim that while they do not want TTP to attack Pakistan, IEA does not have the capacity to stop infiltration through their borders. So they cannot be held responsible for any attack on Pakistan.
Its a subtle message....Recognize us !
20.
This is also true that TTA does not have the capacity to stop cross border movements of TTP.
Pakistan army, with its entire half a million strength, technology, satellites', drones & fence cannot stop that. Expecting TTA to do that is unrealistic.
Also, why should they?
21.
In early April, Pakistan did launch revenge air strikes on a village of TTP inside Afghanistan after multiple attacks & heavy casualties faced by Pak army.
Afghan Taliban responded with caution.
They had to show some defiance to save face but understood Pak's reasons too.
22.
Pakistan still have that strategic window open, despite catastrophic blunders by IK govt, which followed the US directions & refused to recognize the newly formed IEA, missing out on the most strategic national security opportunity to protect Pakistan's western borders.
23.
Pakistan can start to take active measures to protect its western borders. Fence will not do it....Grand strategy will...
Recognition of Kabul govt of IEA is the first step. Joint military collaboration to follow next. IEA faces threats from ISIS. Pak can help there too.
24.
TTP or any other terror gang cannot survive in Afghanistan if there is a joint military collaboration between Pakistan & Kabul IEA govt. It is that simple. But somehow, the decision makers in Islamabad remain frozen in paralysis & indecision, giving too much space to TTP.
25.
Also, Pakistan did another catastrophic blunder in its response to fighting the Indian backed TTP terror.
100,000 Pakistanis died. thousands of officers & troops including. NOT a single Indian soldier died in this war.
Pakistan should have increased the cost of war for RAW
26.
When India was waging such bloody & savage insurgencies against Pakistan, like they did against Sri Lanka earlier through Tamil Tigers & against East Pakistan in 1971, through Mukti terror... Pakistan should have supported Kashmiri & Khalistani freedom movements in return.
27.
So, Pakistan only faces a self inflicted defeat & wounds due to its dangerously passive & paralyzed foreign & security policy.
We never hurt India in India, nor we hit them in Afghanistan. The result is what we bleed today...
Back to 2013 days sliding fast to 2007 dark era
28.
Pakistan's security situation deteriorated under IK govt.
The Pakistan he left behind is more insecure & under threat than the Pakistan he inherited.
He called himself a pacifist & buckled when faced with the challenge of Indian annexation of Kashmir.
Same when US left!
29.
Indians have amassed huge forces & deployed all their offensive hardware on Pakistan's eastern borders.
This threat was building & now has reached critical level.
Pakistan should have secured its western flank much earlier but Islamabad failed catastrophically.
30.
Now Pak faces a two front war.
Insurgencies from the West. High intensity invasion from East.
And a catastrophic state failure level political anarchy in the middle.
Stakes could not be higher not just for Pak, but for entire Muslim world.
Completely self created mess!
https://twitter.com/ZaidZamanHamid/status/1516070172355878918?t=t1gR4UxCIH7ijM6War6Ncg&s=19
https://twitter.com/ZaidZamanHamid/status/1514389825499058183?t=Wc7wxu_vh31HIOJK1X0OVg&s=19
